Concerned Pt. 3: The OF

Melky Cabrera sucks. Well, his fielding is good, but everything else sucks. After showing promise in his first season he has not only failed to develop, he's gotten worse every year. His OPS+ has gone from 95 to 89 and is currently sitting at 76. And if his numbers look bad his at-bats look worse. It's as if he has Cano's approach with no skill to back it up. At 23 he's still very young, but we may have seen enough to guess where his future lies.

During this past off season I was hoping Cashman would look into trading Johnny Damon, but short of a recent shoulder injury, he's having one of the finest season of his career. As a LFer, he needs to be productive with the bat to maintain positive value at a key offensive position. I doubt he continues this pace and I'm not sure what to expect of him next year. As salaries continue to climb, would we be able to cash in on this potential career year in a trade?

Bobby Abreu should not be batting third anymore. His signature patience is all but gone as his OBP is 55 points below career avg. His decline offensively has been remarkably consistent since turning 30: OPS+ 145, 126, 126, 114, and 109 before today's game. Defensively, he's atrocious. So bad in fact, overall, he's a below average player. If the Yankees think about re-signing him they should be shot.

Ouch! Posada may be done for season

From Tyler Kepner of the Times:

Posada said this surgery would be more intensive that his last surgery, which occurred after the 2001 season. He was ready for spring training the next February, but he said the surgery this time could carry a six-month recovery period. Having surgery now could be Posada’s only option to start 2009 healthy.

This sucks. Not so much for the immediate future as much as it's implications on the next three years of his stupid contract. If the extra year/money was a tip of the cap to him from the Steinbrenners for all he's given this organization, then so be it. But the second this contract interferes with planning out the future (see Teixeira, Mark) I'll be royally pissed.

This is not what the team needs

YANKEES BUZZ
Teams that have spoken with the Yankees in recent weeks say Brian Cashman's top priority is a left-handed reliever. With the whole world interested in the Rockies' Brian Fuentes, the Yankees are looking at other options in case the price for him gets too high. They don't think they can get Baltimore's George Sherrill, whose price will be high and who pitches for a division rival. Other names that have come up include Pittsburgh's Damaso Marte and John Grabow and Kansas City's Ron Mahay, who has also drawn interest from the St. Louis Cardinals.

We can only hope this is Brian's "I'm comfortable with Bubba Crosby as our CFer" strategy and not what he actually believes.

Posada should not be catching

Watching the A's game right now and it's obvious that Posada is done behind the plate. If his inability to prevent wild pitches or passed balls wasn't enough, now he can't even reach second base on steal attempts. It's only a matter of time before the entire league knows that anyone can run at anytime.

I'm not sure how his shoulder will respond to off season surgery, but if it's not close to 100% it's time to look elsewhere. With Yadier Molina firmly planted at C in St. Louis perhaps the Yankees can inquire about Bryan Anderson. If we're selling maybe they'd want Mussina or Pettitte?

Tie game!

Update: Win Expectancy Finder added to the side bar. In extras the home team wins 65.7% of the time.

Update 2: Added some really fun PitchFX tools too. You have to check out Joba Chamberlain's start today. Fastball got faster as the game wore on. It looks like he got squeezed by the ump too. Jebus, have they sucked this year or what?

Update: Jose Molina is the balls.

Trades?

Yankees are looking at Bay or Nady from the Pirates.

The yanks are 5 1/2 back in the Wild card. With Matsui out, a move to get some offensive help could get them the wins they need to make the playoffs.

Manny being Manny

River Ave strikes again with a juicy rumor that Manny's three pitch looking K by Rivera was actually a f### you to management.

Concerned Pt. 2: 1B, 2B, 3B

Ranked second among AL 1b in OPS, Jason Giambi is indeed having a better season than anyone envisioned. Just imagine how inept this offense would be without him. With that said, Jason has not been very durable, averaging a mere 110 games played over the last four years. It looks as though we might continue to get production out of him for the remainder of the season, but the question his outstanding performance has raised is, "Should the Yankees bring him back?"

Robinson Cano may be the dumbest player in baseball. You curse him for swinging 3-0 at a ball by his feet and love the raw talent he displays when he turns it into a double. Entering this season with huge expectations, Cano has been comparatively terrible. Looking at his peripheral stats it seems he's been hitting into bad luck. His LD% is up over last year while somehow his BABIP dropped considerably. Simply put, his numbers will improve in the second half. The silver lining to his rough start is that his fielding has been spectacular. Going forward he should be a cog in this team but we're not sure he's the potential #3 hitter people expect him to develop into.

Alex Rodriguez' contract is awful; however, Alex Rodriguez the baseball player is not awful. Despite an extended absence due to a strained quad, he's putting up numbers similar to his best seasons, while also displaying solid defense at 3b. The guy is great at baseball, what else is there to say?

This year same as last?

The folks over at River Ave Blues have provided a peak into why we shouldn't expect to go on a second half run like we did last year. It's not looking pretty.

While the Yankees may have trouble repeating their second half success it looks like OF prospect Austin Jackson won't follow suit. Last night he went 4 for 4 with two doubles and a walk. He's a mere 12 for his last 18.

Richie Sexson: Welcome, white Tony Clark

Playing right to Cashman's "Statue of Liberty" strategy, the Yankees have signed Richie Sexson. While we're confident this signing was made purely to provide Girardi with a bat off the bench capable of hitting LHP, and not to replace Matsui's bat at DH, we don't see this providing the team with any sort of boost. Yes, Sexson's splits against LHP look good this season, but it's in a very small sample, and he hasn't shown any particular skill in that regard over the course of his career. I expect those stats to correct themselves and for him to show why the Mariners let him go in the first place.

Of the options available to fix the lineup, namely, signing Bonds or making a big splash with a trade, this is probably the worst scenario. Hopefully this isn't the last of the moves made.

Trade Deadline Approaching

It's funny that one of the biggest problems with Cashman this year is that he hasn't done anything. But how can I forget about Sidney Ponson and Eric Milton!!! Aside from picking up those washed up starters he hasn't done much. And now that the farm has shown itself to be worse than we all thought, with the graduation of Joba and then the injuries to Hughes and Kennedy, and the bombing of some of the position players, we don't have many tradable commodities. Hindsight is 20/20, but perhaps if Cashman wasn't so enamored with Hughes and Kennedy, he could have traded one of them when their value was sky high last summer or during the off-season (Santana).

Is Cashman going to continue this philosophy with every prospect? For example, will he be reluctant to trade Jesus Montero because he is tearing up Low Single A? or Austin Jackson who is having a fine season in AA? What if one of them were to be the key piece of a trade to bring in a young powerful bat like Matt Holliday or Jason Bay that could make the difference between making the playoffs this year?

The trade deadline is coming up fast and we will find out the answer to these questions soon. Though based on Cashman's last couple of seasons, I would more likely expect him to sign the recently released Richie Sexson. We all know that he is the player that the Yankees need to make them a championship caliber team.

EDIT 2:34pm:

And right on cue Cashman Signs Sexson

Concerned Pt. 1: C and SS, ouch!

Jorge Posada looks ageless with the bat but his shoulder is a mess and will require surgery in the off season. For a catcher that wasn't very good with the glove to begin with this injury could prove disasterous. It looks like he'll spend the rest of the season sharing time at 1B and DH while catching sporadically. But the implications on our future go beyond his position. If he can no longer be a full time catcher, his bat will be much less valuable at 1b and DH, and we'll have to deal with a Molina type more often. Furthermore, if he's stuck at either of those positions for four years (dumb contract), will the team shy away from signing 1b Mark Teixeira? Son of a....

Derek Jeter's defensive liability has been well documented. After an off season of training to improve his lateral movement the results are better, but still not good (UZR of -10 through 6/7). He needs to move. Heck, he should have moved when we acquired A-Rod, but so much for putting your team first, eh Captain? Anyway.... What is up with his bat? He's career 121 OPS+ hitter that is currently sitting at 99. Many speculate that the HBP he took off his hand has thrown off his game and we think there's some validity to that thought. He'll probably bounce back in the second half. Going forward, though, he's likely to see his numbers start declining as he'll be 35 next year.

Losing these two elite offensive players at key defensive positions will mean we'll need more production elsewhere.

We're concerned about the direction of this team, very concerned

While this has been thought of as a transition season from the beginning some of the signs are not all that encouraging. Actually, that's an enormous understatement, as our immediate future looks rather bleak. Over the coming days we're going to take a look at this team from several different angles. We'll begin by doing a position by position analysis and follow that up with an overview of the organization. We hope you enjoy. Wait, if you like the Yankees you probably won't enjoy this.

Matt Holliday: It would be, it would be so nice

While it appears Johnny Damon may be returning to give the lineup a needed boost, the Yankees are still in need of a RHB and it just so happens there's a young RHB available in Matt Holliday. While many point out his road splits as an indicator of what he'd provide, a stat called Adjusted Batting Runs, which neuturalizes the advantages of playing at Coors, has him as the 7th best player in the NL. And while we're not sure where he stands in 2008 in terms of defense, in 2007 he had UZR of +13, good for 2nd best among LFers in the NL.

What will it take to get him? Not sure, but we'll probably have a better handle on it after Xavier Nady or Jason Bay go. Since we are a bit thin for upper level talent, perhaps a three way deal that would include sending the under performing Bobby Abreu on his way for prospect(s).

Shatsui

It appears Hideki Matsui's knee is one step closer to ending his season. It may be time to see what Barry has left.

First things first

Two and half seasons have passed since Brian Cashman signed a three year deal granting him control of personnel decisions. Since then the Yankees have watched their winning percentage go from .599 to .580, and now down to .534 at the break. While this decline in performance is certainly alarming, a deeper look is necessary.

This past off season provided insight into Cash's philosophy and his handle on the state of this team. It unfolded with negotiations for Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez. The Rivera contract was a bit rich but at three years, and with no indication of decline, it was reasonable. Why he chose to go four years on a 36 year old catcher is beyond us. Yes, we realize he had an offer from the Mets, but it was apparent he had no intention of leaving the team with which he played his entire career. Letting him walk might have been the right move anyway. Then there's the A-Rod deal. As no other teams were making a play on him, we outbid ourselves en route to committing to a 10 year deal with a AAV far in excess of the next highest paid player. It was an incredibly stupid deal, one in which we will be suffering the consequences from for years.

As it happened, the best starting pitcher in baseball, who happens to be 28 and left handed, was available. Despite a rotation with two unproven rookies, a questionable veteran, and no back up plan, Cash decided against trading for Johan Santana, watching him instead land with the Mets at a discount. Frustratingly, the payroll was cited as a contributing reason to not acquiring Johan, despite overpaying his veterans by a long shot. This is BS, Brian. It seems the biggest motivator is that you're obsessed with your own prospects.



In addition to that non-move, there were rumors the Giants were interested in Hideki Matsui with the players involved being Noah Lowry or Jonathan Sanchez. Matsui was coming off of right knee surgery and considering that his left knee had also been problematic, it's no surprise his season may be over. It was also apparent his days in the field were done, so his value was much lower serving as a DH. Dealing Matsui and/or Damon, who spent most of last season injured or as a DH, was a move that should have been made. And again, showing a lack of foresight, there was no backup plan for our OF.

Other moves made during the off season: Latroy Hawkins. That is all.

While Brian has made some praiseworthy moves during his tenure (reorganizing player development) we tentatively approach this trade deadline with little confidence he has the foresight and baseball acumen to either improve this team's chances of making the playoffs, or prepare them to make a run next year.

This is an aging team with many big decisions to be made in the coming years. Is Brian Cashman the right man for the job? I have a feeling we'll find out soon.